My Posts on Investment, Travel & Food (我的投資, 旅遊, 飲食印記)

Please Buy at Big3 Trading

2010-03-05T06:10:00.000-08:00

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Sunset@西九

2008-06-23T21:09:00.000-07:00

Sunset@西九

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水瓶座cafe@旺角

2008-06-23T20:37:00.000-07:00

水瓶座cafe@旺角

Cafe deVerseau

南瓜湯


蒜蓉墨魚仔

芝士局西蘭花

蜜汁燒豬排

藍莓芝士cake - home made, 質地較軟, 入口即溶, 藍莓幾新鮮
蕉糖焞蛋 -- 跟套餐送---

www.cafedeverseau.com

More about #728 (China Telecom) 中電信

2007-02-16T00:15:00.000-08:00

中電信 : 近三日已升>8%

高盛發表報告表示，將中電信目標價由3.6元調高至4.3元，評級由「中性」調高至「買入」，因為在中移動宣布負責於10個城市建設商業運作前期的TD- SCDMA網絡，令中電信獲分配TD制式的機會大降，免除了此一長期網絡投資負擔；同時，在未來1-3年，固網的資本開支對銷售開支比率將較預期為低，故將其評級上調。高盛預期，中電信及網通(0906-HK)07年度的資本開支對銷售開支比率會維持19-20%；另外，雖然中電信收購聯通(0762-HK)CDMA網絡的效益成疑，但該行認為中電信未來6-12個月進行重組的機會微。至於股價表現一直領先的中移動(0941-HK)，短期仍受惠於營運有增長動力及資本充裕，長遠風險則上升；10個城市的3G網絡建設再不可視之為試驗；中移動今年10月就會完成裝設上百萬用戶的容量及3G手機採購，不排除今年內地會發出3G牌照或投入商業運行。
高盛分別給予各電訊股的新(舊)目標價及評級如下。
中移動/73元(68元)/中性; 聯通/9.4元(8.8元)/沽售; 網通/22.2元(21.2元)/中性。

Follow up - 4 recommended Stocks

2007-02-15T23:45:00.000-08:00

Follow up see "blue"

1. PICC (2328.HK)
This stock recommened by Merill Lynch who upgrades PICC Property & Casualty (2328.HK) from sell to neutral .Technically, it's three bottom rebounce, it's show very good buy signal. However, the quality and bussiness of the company are not very good. Therefore, it only fit to buy for it's rebounce 20-30% in short term.
It have rised for more than 50%, and still stay at high. For my own opinion, it's the time to take profit since his value have up to reasonable level.

2. China Telecom (0728.HK)
The price near its 52-week low, but unbeaten. It means two bottom rebouce, showing good buying signal. On the other hand, it's CEO confident that China Telecom will obtain a mobile network licence in PRC(3G network). If it really obtain the licence, it's profit will increase significantly. It's worth to buy at so cheaper price, HKD2.55. The target price is HKD2.9 then HKD3.2...down lower HKD2.4 must be cut loss
It rise up to historic high at 4.47 (great more than my target), and now at 3.86 after >1 month correction. Today, Golden Sacs recommended this stock and upgrade to "Buy". It seems that 3G licence must be issued before 08 Olympic Game. Good news will come, hence it can still be kept......

3. HSBC (0005.HK)
Nothing to said it's the most famous and best stock in HK. Actually, no need to talk here. Nevertheless, I must tell u HSBC is the most worth buy Bank in Asia in terms of P/E and P/B...so even it price seems high HKD135..it's still worth to buy @HKD133-138 level...hold it to collect high interest quaterly and wait untill at least HKD160...
It have meet high at $152, and procced correction now, running along 140. If u bought at low i.e. 130-135, it's still worth to keep since your interst income will benefit to u. Famous financial editor, Mr. Shek recommened that we can buy at 130 or after Result annoucement in mid-March.

4. XIWANG SUGAR (2088.HK)
Why I talk about this stock??? Sugar is just a very common and cheap commodity in the world. We use them everyday. Commodities bullish Jim Rogers said that the price of commodities including "sugar" will rise gradually in coming ten years. Like PetroChina (0857.HK), stock price up varies to oil price up. ZIJIN MINING (2899.HK)trend to rise since golden price tend to up in coming years. Thus it's the only sugar stock in HK. Collect it at its low....
The stock is still finding its low and support since recommendation. At the same time, international sugar price is still at low. If u bought it, be patient to keep. Otherwise, wait a good price to buy...the best time is followed the "big correction"

Singapore Highlights (新加坡2006)

2007-02-15T06:07:00.000-08:00

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胡志明市Highlights

2007-02-15T05:22:00.000-08:00

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即係油價有排都唔會跌!!!!!

2006-08-25T01:05:00.000-07:00

即係油價有排都唔會跌!!!!!

環球追蹤：乙醇當炒蓋茨唔執輸
華爾街正在熱捧乙醇。去年，乙醇這種汽油代替品在美國興起一股「草根」投資熱，農民紛紛動用積蓄興建廠房，將玉米轉化成這種可再生的燃料。現在，幾乎所有和乙醇沾上邊的股票都成為互惠基金和有錢投資者的追捧對象。全球首富微軟（ Microsoft ）主席比爾．蓋茨（ Bill Gates ）也成為乙醇投資者。乙醇是一種酒精類替代燃料，可以與汽油混合使用。隨汽油價格上漲，乙醇的現貨價格亦飆升，過去 12 個月來漲幅達到一倍，上周收報每加侖 2.44 美元。美國政府近幾個月正在大力提倡使用乙醇，稱這將有助打破美國人對原油的依賴。美國很多乙醇製造商是大企業旗下的小型子公司，或為初創企業與私人企業。因此可供投資者追捧的股票並不多，股價自然被抬高。既然所有人都擠在一個狹窄的入口處，普通投資者又怎能參與？
熱炒 ADM 　股價暴漲半成被炒得最熱的當屬食品加工商 Archer-Daniels-Midland （ ADM ）。儘管乙醇業務僅佔該公司總收入 5% ，但其股價自今年初以來已暴漲 50% ，市值超過 240 億美元。去年 ADM 的乙醇產量達到 10 億加侖，幾乎佔美國總產量四分之一。 ADM 還計劃在內布拉斯加州建造年產 2.75 億加侖的乙醇生產廠，在產能上將與其最貼近的競爭對手徹底甩開。為了抓住這個投資熱潮，美國第二和第三大乙醇生產商 Vera Sun Energy 和 Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings 分別在三周前向美國證監提交上市申請。第四大生產商 Cargill 也有意迅速擴張。心急的投資者連未正式生產乙醇的企業也不放過。三周前，在投資者發現俄亥俄州的 Andersons 收購了三家興建中的乙醇生產廠股權後，其股價立即暴漲，自 3 月 27 日以來，該公司市值增長 1.45 億美元，增幅 28% ，雖然它在乙醇業務上僅投資了 3610 萬美元。
添動力　布殊簽新法案
 乙醇分銷商 Pacific Ethanol 行政總裁凱勒（ Neil Koehler ）說：「考慮到乙醇行業的增長速度，投資者可說飢不擇食。」該公司去年淨虧損 910 萬美元，營業額 8760 萬美元。自去年 11 月該公司宣布蓋茨打算對其在西岸建造五家乙醇生產商的計劃投資 8400 萬美元購入 28% 股權後，其股價已上漲近兩倍。但風險依舊存在。由於乙醇價格基本上隨原油價格波動，目前油價居高不下，接近每桶 70 美元，但未來走勢難以預測。不過華爾街多半持樂觀態度。美國總統布殊在去年 8 月簽署一項能源法案，首次要求石油行業使用部份可再生燃料作為汽車燃料。政府強制的乙醇使用量將從今年的 40 億加侖增加到 2012 年的 75 億加侖。
急增長　恐成工業泡沫政府的能源措施助了乙醇行業一臂之力。乙醇業人士稱，這種變化可望令乙醇需求每年提高近 20 億加侖。截至 1 月底，形勢的發展似乎正如某些分析師所願。 ADM 公布，強勁的乙醇價格推動公司去年末季多賺 17% ，遠高於華爾街的預期。但 ADM 股價高昂令某些分析師擔心，投資者可能對一家食品加工商寄予不切實際的期望，食品添加劑業務通常毛利微薄。部份經濟學家亦憂慮，乙醇行業增長如此急速，是否會很快出現飽和。可再生燃料協會（ Renewable Fuels Association ）稱，目前有三十三家乙醇工廠建設，九家現有工廠正在擴建。以這種速度，該行業產能將遠遠超出美國能源部對未來幾年的需求預測。標準普爾（ Standard&Poor's ）分析師阿賈爾（ Elif Acar ）說：「在我看來這未免有些突然。」她將乙醇行業的評級定為「投機」，其解釋是不能確定這行業的長期前景。但 ADM 行政總裁安德魯斯（ G.Allen Andreas ）指出，愈來愈多汽車業推出可以使用 85% 乙醇燃料（稱為 E85 ）的汽車，乙醇市場未來的每年需求可望達到 150 億加侖。華爾街日報

國內家電股

2006-07-27T01:41:00.000-07:00

大唐投資(證券)有限公司投資策略師吳家順:

股中作樂：國內家電股競爭烈無利可圖　

.................一連講了三天儲蓄銀行股，怕各位會悶一點，先講講其他，過兩天再說儲蓄股系列﹔有看財經新聞的投
資者也會知道，最近有兩隻國內的家電股有收購合併消息，市場報道相關的新聞也多了很多，今天筆者也分享一點
意見。
　筆者開宗名義講明，筆者約於兩年前開始，對國內家庭電器的股票，完全沒有任何無興趣，原因就各位有空可看
看隨時回到國內看看，42吋平面液晶顯示器，約6000元可收貨，冷氣機，1000大元可收工﹔廣東科龍（921）及
格林柯爾（8056）等，前者所造的雪櫃，也是有點品牌的，最後兩者也不得善終（當中包括了有其他管冶問題）﹔
TCL多媒體（1070）做電視也開始人所共知，結果如何﹖賤物鬥窮人，售價愈來愈低，零售商的利潤也愈來愈少，
盈利自然也看不見會有大的增長。
　其實股票市場很多時也是最好的指標，各位只要看看以上所提及的家庭電器股，筆者請問當中有沒有表現較為突
出的﹖其實是有的，因為全部的表現也都是特別差，從圖表上可見，股價以持續下跌為主﹗這也就是說明，市場根本
對這類股票不感興趣。
　或許有讀者朋友會認為，國內經濟高速增長，對家電的需求及品質也有所提高，銷量也定會提高，這點筆者也感
認同，假設銷售提高，但售價降低，對家電零售商是無大幫助的﹗不同類別的股票多的是，筆者認為不必因為一宗
兩宗的收購而對這些股票產生念頭，不如看看其他的吧，如真的很有興趣，不如親身走到旺角的旗艦店看
看﹗...............

睇完之後, 本人有少少意見:

國美(493)和永樂(503)跟廣東科龍（921）,格林柯爾（8056）和TCL多媒體（1070)唔同, ..仲有一隻叫海爾(1169).....前兩者只係做零售, 但其餘的就係製造商... #493和#503, 了賣國產貨外(包括聯想#992個人電腦), 都會賣部份日本, 台湾名牌電器和數碼產品. 廣東科龍（921）,格林柯爾（8056）和TCL多媒體（1070)主要生產大型家電, 利潤其實比不上個人數碼產品

本人有朋友在一日本名牌數碼相機公司工作, 長註內地...他說雖然個人數碼產品利潤唔係真係好高, 但一個商鋪收佢地的宣傳費是十分可觀e.g. 在鋪頭門口放一個只幾十尺的宣傳櫃台, 放一星期就要用上約二萬元...櫃台的宣傳人員都係由生產商提供; 如想將自己品牌的新產品放在當眼處, 又可收你費用; 甚至放banners都可收你錢;所以大部份生產商的利潤就被宣傅費食了.......

總之琳琳總總的宣傳都可收費...加上各品牌競爭激烈, 生產商都願意付出可觀的價錢...雖然很多人會到香港買呢類產品, 但其實國美和永樂在國內的分店都有好多內地人幫親, 絕不比旺角的遜色...

所以利潤的壓力永遠在生產商, 而不是零售商.....他們的主要競爭對手只是其他大型連鎖店....

_____________________________________
以上只是本人所知的情況, 原有錯誤, 謹此致歉... 多多指教

６６６效應

2006-06-07T22:15:00.000-07:00

近日成交少番好多(唔計中行仲少), 銀行隔夜拆息仍高(>4厘), 港元較之前弱勢...似乎認購中行的資金不單止沒有回流股票市場, 部份資金仲可能已經離開了香港　！！！
部份資金可能去了買歐元/歐債，因為歐元呈上升勢頭, 加上預期歐洲中央銀行本週四會加息，　更加增加了歐元的講買力．另外，日本/美國都會加息，部份資金可能回流日本/美國去還債和買資產，尤其一些該國的基金．
所以港股相信會呈向下勢頭，技術上會試一試２５０天平線．較好的會以牛皮形式消化．．．．

666 (Devil Active)

2006-06-07T21:56:00.000-07:00

666 Effect : Yesterday night, Dow change "UP" to "DOWN", drop over 140 from day high. Today, Asia market drop siginficantly, esp. Japan drop >400, HK HSI drop over 200. It seems that "666" start on 06.06.2006 and the evil activate to affect the stock market. Particularly, some big head make so much "trap" in past few days. They made the signal that HK market is strong and will not drop so much relatively to outside market. Actually, they push up the HSI, but sell their stock in high level i.e. dispatch stock to small investors.

Money Out HK : On the other, u can see that the overnigh HIBOR is >4%, HKD/USD shows weak, and the trading amount lesser than past few weeks, just around 300 Billion HKD (much lesser if deduce the amount of BOC (3988) ). Hence, it ensure that "money" have gone out HK. May be change to buy Euro assets / return to Japan or USA.

Trend down : Additional to World Cup Effect and near half-year close, the fund managers will make profit to their funds and go to holiday. The market will tend to be quiet, and the trading amount will collapse. Techically, the HSI will trend down to 250ma (~15000) or 14900 (0.382 Golden Ratio). Bearish (666 Devil) continue to control the market !!!!!!

全民皆股的時刻開始??真的??

2006-06-06T05:08:00.000-07:00

中行真係好多人抽，連我成日買"經濟日報"個檔的報紙婆都問我點樣填表．就証明呢隻股確有吸引力，咁香港一定無人唔識中國銀行，出名果然係好ｄ既．今次我就眾人皆醉我獨醒而無抽中行．咁當然我有自己的理由喇！！！其實仲有好多人好似我咁無抽中行，起碼我有好多同事朋友都無抽到.........所以我都同意Thomas(吳家順)的講法．．起碼等到我地都如痴如醉，就係股災之日．．．

<轉貼>:大唐投資(證券)有限公司投資策略師---吳家順 06/06/2006

全民皆股的時刻開始
看了筆者的題目，不知會否又怕股災到，筆者敢說，一定未到，如筆者認為快將到達時，一定會即時跟各位分享，粗略估計，大約在２００８年北京奧運前後會出現。

今天說全民皆股，是其中一個序幕，而言個序幕是由中資金融股開始，君不見最近的中國銀行（３９８８）的狂熱程度嗎，有長者參與，也有從未投資過的學生參與，筆者就曾於公共公交通公具上，聽見一對學生的對話，言談中得知中國銀行是他們首次的投資，賺了數百元便很高興地高談投資學問，筆者希望於真正的股災到來時，他們還是學生，至少損失的金錢也有限。

今天中國銀行為開始，將會引至今天的參與者以為股票是很容易賺錢的，再過多一些日子後，這些股民就會心思思買其他，然後一步一步走進股海之中，成為新一批羊生羊太，為日後大戶散貨找來一批新力軍。

年前，筆者曾自創散心投資心理圖，一國際投資大銀行也曾有類似的作品，就十分不錯地描述這樣的循環，生生不息，每次也有人出事，相信無人想見，筆者情願自己看錯，也希望各位能增值自己！

看至這處會感到害怕嗎？暫時又不用太過擔心的，現在只是一個開始，還未到成熟，當大朝一天，你身邊的親朋戚友全部不思本業，走進超級市場大部份人的話題也離不開股市，到達全民皆股的最高級別，全民股神，股災就會迫在眉睫，國企股加入藍籌成份股是己知及可預見的引子，而下一個引子，將會中國市場推出指數期貨，到時再詳談，而現在人人說十年一次股災快重臨，不用理它等回吐放心買貨吧！

大唐投資(證券)有限公司投資策略師---吳家順 06/06/2006

06.06.06 (Con't)

2006-06-06T04:15:00.000-07:00

As I said yesterday, there'll be a drop in stock market. In Asia exchange period, most indices drop except Taiwan, there was also a great drop in Japan. Nevertheless, "666" not yet pass now as Europe exchange period just started. What happen in US ???? Will "666" devil trigger on US market???????????

Pls see the real time indices :

London Stock Exchange

Dow & NASDAQ

06.06.06

2006-06-04T23:19:00.000-07:00

6th June 2006 (06.06.06) is a very special in this era. In western countries, "666" means evil, unluck and bad signal. Most people fear of the "number". However, "666" have adverse meaning in Chinese, showing that endless rich. Appling the signal in stock markets, there'll be a disaster in western stock market ????, but a rise in oriental stock markets ??? No one know up to now. May be "666" just a magic number......................................

4 recommended stocks

2006-05-29T11:48:00.000-07:00

1. PICC (2328.HK)
This stock recommened by Merill Lynch who upgrades PICC Property & Casualty (2328.HK) from sell to neutral .Technically, it's three bottom rebounce, it's show very good buy signal. However, the quality and bussiness of the company are not very good. Therefore, it only fit to buy for it's rebounce 20-30% in short term.

2. China Telecom (0728.HK)
The price near its 52-week low, but unbeaten. It means two bottom rebouce, showing good buying signal. On the other hand, it's CEO confident that China Telecom will obtain a mobile network licence in PRC(3G network). If it really obtain the licence, it's profit will increase significantly. It's worth to buy at so cheaper price, HKD2.55. The target price is HKD2.9 then HKD3.2...down lower HKD2.4 must be cut loss

3. HSBC (0005.HK)
Nothing to said it's the most famous and best stock in HK. Actually, no need to talk here. Nevertheless, I must tell u HSBC is the most worth buy Bank in Asia in terms of P/E and P/B...so even it price seems high HKD135..it's still worth to buy @HKD133-138 level...hold it to collect high interest quaterly and wait untill at least HKD160...

4. XIWANG SUGAR (2088.HK)
Why I talk about this stock??? Sugar is just a very common and cheap commodity in the world. We use them everyday. Commodities bullish Jim Rogers said that the price of commodities including "sugar" will rise gradually in coming ten years. Like PetroChina (0857.HK), stock price up varies to oil price up. ZIJIN MINING (2899.HK)trend to rise since golden price tend to up in coming years. Thus it's the only sugar stock in HK. Collect it very its low....

Tomorrow (29.05.06) will quiet, but....

2006-05-28T12:11:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow (29.05.06) is clearance day of HSF, so I predic that the trading volume will be quite low. The bearish big head will trigger the HSF to be cleared at 15800-16000. However, there were rise of Euro and US stock market in last Friday, plus, tomorrow is a public holiday in US...so a good picture (largely up /down) will be appeared after 15:30 (May HSF cleared)

Nothing can do today

2006-05-28T11:42:00.000-07:00

Today, I'm very busy in my work, so there's less time to follow the market. Though I guess in my previos article indicating that HSI/HSF rise significantly (not just decade points, is over 200 pts), I don't have time to make any trading. Additional to the Nikkei (Japan) rise over 200 pts, the volality of HSI was more than 200pts. If I have enough time in front of the computer, I think I can make at least time trading. Bought at today's low and sold at high price...oh dear, why I don't have time today ???? Help me????
By observation, the HSI's low level is at close of Japana.m. market , and close of HK a.m. market. Since p.m. Nikkei open from 12o0 to 1400 (HK Time), we can easily guess the direction of HSI in the afternoon. This pattern not necessary be truth, nevertheless, the releationship between Nikkei & HSI in these two weeks is very close...
The HSF closed at 158XX, so I think once again that the close price of this month's HSI will mostly be 158XX................

HSI must up Today...

2006-05-28T11:40:00.000-07:00

According to Sky Sir of 788, he guess there'll be a significant up of HSI today (中文全文)"I was bearish last few days, and change to bullish yesterday before close . Reasons : 1. my system has buy signal; 2. don't U find yesterday and 7/11/2005, 30/12/2005 , 8/03/2006 and 12/02/2006 very similar ; 3. gold chart have great chance to rebound and HSF is following gold now as it showed hedge fund liquidation That's my 2 cents!"

In addition to the bullish of European indices and DOW DJ index, I have confident, same as most investors, HSI/HSF will rise today. However, what do u think at today's close??? I'm not so confident that HSI will arrive 16000 level...I guess HSI will keep at around 15800-15900....

要買歐元嗎???

2006-05-28T11:38:00.000-07:00

根據財華社香港新聞中心:俄國媒體引述俄羅斯財政部長庫德林稱，俄羅斯670億美元的穩定基金中，大部分將以美元和歐元形式存放，兩者各佔45%，餘10%存入英鎊。分析員表示，該基金貨幣組合多元化，意味著俄羅斯將成為美元沽家，需在一段時間內增持歐元和英鎊。

照咁睇，我地係咪應該依家就開始吸納歐元，如果唔係第時去歐洲旅行買野咪好貴．其實唔止俄羅斯，就連中東ｄ大老板都開始沽美債吸歐債．．．趁依家歐元仲抵，買番ｄ先

Buy Euro now ????

2006-05-28T10:56:00.000-07:00

According to the Dow's Newstter, Russian 670B Fund balance the proprotion of USD and Euro. The Russian should be one of the largest USD bearish.
It's not only Russian Govt has increase the stock of Euro, but information also disclosed that there's also assest change to Euro or Euro Bonds. Increasingly, the governments or cental banks in Russia and Middle Asia tend to sell USD, but buy Euro or even some Aisan currencies. We would found that the above mentioned countries are accompanied with huge oil storage. That;s mean most oil dollars tend to change other currency (e.g. Euro) instead of usual practice to buy USD assests. It implies that Euro will challenge USD's state in the world.
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I also intend to increase the storage of Euro because I need to travel in Europe. Now is a relativelty low level to collect Euro. Women should also increase the storage of Euro since they need to buy LV, Gucci, Prada etc valuable products in Euro.
Nevertheless, I don't think Euro will be the best choice of currency we should hold. Comparative to AUD and NZD, Euro's interest is still low. Also AUD is a main commodities currency in the World. In the long term, I still intend to collect AUD. The portfolio should be 40% AUD, 30% Euro, 20% USD, 10% RMB